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“Home sweet home” is starting to feel a tad bit “salty” for Major League Baseball bettors in 2022.
Traditionally, home field advantage in MLB has been a relatively reliable option for bettors when considering baseball wagers. VSiN’s Dave Tuley, who keep tabs on several betting trends across multiple sports indicates that home field advantage is actually down so far this year compared to previous seasons.
Tuley tweeted out early Monday morning that MLB home teams are 671-616 this year, hitting at a 52.1% clip. While still above .500, he also indicated that those numbers tend to be closer to 54%.
More VFV of #MLB: faves lead 755-509 SU (59.7%) on season w/ 23 games closing pick-’em (faves usually win around 59%, so still ahead of the pace, but gap has been narrowing); home teams just 671-616 (52.1%, but usually closer to 54%); Unders dipped to 639-585-61 (52.2%) @VSiNLive
— Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) July 11, 2022
Here’s how home teams have done over the last 10 seasons, including so far in 2022. Remember, the 2020 season was the shortened COVID year with several stadiums having limited to no fans in the stands.
Trends and stats are via BetIQ.
No team has been better at home this season than the New York Yankees, who are 34-9-0 straight up at home, winning 79.1% of the time. On the run line, however, the Yankees are just 21-22-0; covering 48.8% of their games; all of which have been as a home favorite.
Meanwhile, no team has been worst straight up at home than the Oakland Athletics. The A’s are just 11-31-0 this year at The Coliseum, winning 26.2% of their games. They’ve also been a disaster on the run line as well, going 13-29-0; covering in 31% of those games.
Perhaps the biggest surprise comes from the Chicago White Sox. The projected AL Central favorites at the start of the season, Chicago has the sixth-worst home record in all of baseball. The South Siders are just 19-25-0 overall as the All-Star Break approaches, and an unconscionable 14-30-0 on the run line at home this season; hitting at 31.8%.
As the numbers above indicate, this would be the lowest percentage of home games lost in the last 10 seasons across Major League Baseball if this trend continues.
Here’s how the season has gone for home teams month-by-month.
Based on the start to July, it could be an indication that this trend could start positively regressing to the mean and getting closer to the average number of 54%.
Of course, that’s never an indication to bet every home team blindly, but it’s worth keeping track of as the month and rest of the season continue.
Follow all of Ben’s betting plays in real-time HERE!
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